When the pandemic hit, Target made the opposite call to most department-store retail: keep the stores open and make them the engine of digital orders. Every location became a fulfillment hub, staff shifted to picking online baskets, and the same-day services it had built or bought earlier - Drive Up curbside pickup and the Shipt delivery service it owns - absorbed the surge. In June 2020 it added fresh and frozen groceries to curbside, turning a general-merchandise run into a safe weekly shop.

The payoff was historic. Target's 2020 sales grew by more than $15 billion - greater than its total growth over the prior 11 years - and the company estimated it gained about $9 billion in market share as rivals like Macy's and Kohl's temporarily closed stores and watched sales decline. Holiday comparable sales rose 17.2%, with digital comps more than doubling while store comps still grew 4.2%.

The mix shift paid out at both ends: in the fourth quarter same-day services grew 212% and Drive Up more than 500%, while omnichannel customers spent nearly four times as much as store-only shoppers and about ten times as much as online-only ones. Q4 net income rose 66% to $1.38 billion on revenue of $28.34 billion, up 21%.

2020 sales grew by more than $15B - more than the prior 11 years combined - with roughly $9B of market share gained; holiday comps rose 17.2%

Stores within miles of nearly every order slash last-mile cost, so the pandemic surge in online baskets flowed through existing real estate instead of new warehouses.

Drive Up and Shipt matched exactly what cautious customers wanted: contact-free, same-day, no shipping fee economics for Target.

Essentials plus general merchandise meant one trip - physical or digital - captured the whole pandemic basket.

Owning Shipt rather than renting delivery kept the margin and the customer data as volumes exploded.

A store network dismissed as legacy cost becomes a crisis advantage when it doubles as fulfillment infrastructure. Assets already in the neighborhood beat warehouses built during the panic.

Target exited 2020 with its stock at all-time highs - near $199.96 in January 2021, up about 60% over the year - and a $4 billion annual investment plan to open stores, remodel others and expand fulfillment capacity. Management cautioned that 2021 would bring brutal comparisons to its locked-down 2020 levels, and a stimulus-boosted January kept traffic elevated as vaccinated shoppers began to drift back to old habits.

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The sources

  1. Target (TGT) earnings Q4 2020 top estimates cnbc.com
  2. Target holiday sales 2020: Comparable sales jump 17% cnbc.com